Latest Polling
June 2026
Hart Research
June 18-24, 2026 | n800 likely Montana general election voters
New polling from a survey conducted June 18-24 finds Seth Bodnar is the strongest candidate to defeat Kurt Alme, but that victory is only possible in a head-to-head race. A three-way race splits the anti-Alme vote, effectively giving Republicans the winning hand.
Key findings:
In a head-to-head matchup, Bodnar matches Alme at 50% support each.
In a four-way race, Alme leads with 47% of the vote followed by Bodnar with 25% and and Bankhead with 22%.
37% of independents back Bodnar in the four-way race, followed by 34% for Alme, and only 17% for Bankhead.
In the initial two-way trial heat between Bodnar and Alme, the race is essentially tied: 47% Alme, 45% Bodnar, within the margin of error.
In a head-to-head matchup, Bankhead trails Alme by 6 points.
June 2026
Tavern Research
In a head-to-head matchup, Bodnar matches Alme at 50% support each
In a head-to-head matchup, Bankhead falls short of Alme by 12 points (44% to 56%)
Bankhead’s 44% against Alme is consistent with voters who prefer a generic Democrat, showing she cannot over perform the Democratic baseline despite millions spent supporting her in the primary
May 2026
MTFP-Eagleton
A statewide poll conducted by Montana Free Press–Eagleton found that while name ID was low for all candidates,
Bodnar posted stronger favorability than Alme statewide
Among Democrats, 44% viewed Bodnar favorably
More respondents identified as independents than Republicans or Democrats
May 2026
MT Opinion Polls
In May, Bodnar held a narrow lead over Alme in a two-way race, with Bodnar at 39% and Alme at 36%, with 25% undecided
As name recognition for both has increased, the race has stayed statistically tied