Latest Polling
October 9, 2026
Concord Public Opinion Partners
Independent Seth Bodnar holds a +2 point lead over Republican Kurt Alme (37% Bodnar / 35% Alme / 13% Bankhead / 13% undecided).
Bodnar draws 29% of likely Republicans and 24% of somewhat likely Republicans, while Alme draws 0% of likely Democrats and 12% of somewhat likely Democrats.
Independent Bodnar leads Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead by +45-points among modeled Democrats (62% Bodnar / 17% Bankhead / 8% Alme / 14% undecided).
Bodnar is the only one of the three Senate candidates tested with a positive net favorability rating (+6 points: 41% favorable / 35% unfavorable). Alme has a -17 point negative net favorability rating and Bankhead a -14 point negative rating.
If the general election for US Senate were today, whom would you vote for?
September 2026
Aspect Strategic
Alme continues to struggle to consolidate voters, leading with just 44%, followed by Bodnar at 32%, Bankhead at 14%, and 7% undecided, consistent with other post-withdrawal deadline polling.
Among Democrats, Bodnar leads Bankhead 55% to 38%. Among Harris- voting independents, he leads 72% to 24% - a three-to-one advantage. Bodnar's image is also stronger with these voters. He is viewed favorably by 64% of Democrats and 63% of Harris-voting independents, compared with 54% and 34%, respectively, for Bankhead.
After voters hear messaging, Bodnar rises from 32% to 41%--a nine-point gain. At the same time, Alme falls from 44% to 36% and Bankhead declines from 14% to 9%.
September 2026
MTFP-Eagleton
In the first public polling since the withdrawal deadline, Bodnar trails Alme by just 8 points (38% Alme / 30% Bodnar / 16% Bankhead / 5% Austin)
This is the lowest Alme has polled since he entered the race, showing his support is eroding among Republicans
Most Democrats, 53%, said they would vote for Bodnar over Bankhead, at 41%
Independent voters, Montana’s largest voting bloc at 44%, according to the poll, also broke for Bodnar 38%, with 25% favoring Alme and 18% for Bankhead.
July 2026
Wild Montana Action Fund / GSG
In a four-way race, Alme leads with just 36% of the vote, followed by Bodnar with 26%, Alani Bankhead with 18%, and Libertarian Kyle Austin taking 4%.
When the race consolidates to a three-way, Bodnar surpasses Alme with 40% of the vote, followed by 38% for Alme and 9% for Austin.
Bankhead continues to trail Alme by 6 points, consistent with the range she has fallen short of Alme by in recent polling.
July 2026
Tavern Research
In a head-to-head matchup, Bodnar is statistically tied with Alme at 49% to 51%
In a head-to-head matchup, Bankhead falls short of Alme by 18 points, 6 points worse than one month ago
Bodnar continues to surpass Bankhead in a three-way race with Kurt Alme (49% Alme / 27% Bodnar / 24% Bankhead)
June 2026
Hart Research
In a head-to-head matchup, Bodnar matches Alme at 50% support each.
In a four-way race, Alme leads with 47% of the vote followed by Bodnar with 25% and and Bankhead with 22%.
In the initial two-way trial heat between Bodnar and Alme, the race is essentially tied: 47% Alme, 45% Bodnar, within the margin of error.
In a head-to-head matchup, Bankhead trails Alme by 6 points.
July 2026
GQR
In a four-way race, Alme leads with just 41% of the vote, followed by Bodnar with 27%, Alani Bankhead with 22%,.
When the race consolidates to a three-way, Bodnar surpasses Alme, 44% to 40%.
Bankhead continues to trail Alme by 8 points, consistent with the range she has fallen short of Alme by in recent polling.
Bodnar continues to gain favorability as voters learn more about him, while Bankhead’s favorability has stalled.
May 2026
MTFP-Eagleton
A statewide poll conducted by Montana Free Press–Eagleton found that while name ID was low for all candidates,
Bodnar posted stronger favorability than Alme statewide
Among Democrats, 44% viewed Bodnar favorably
More respondents identified as independents than Republicans or Democrats
May 2026
MT Opinion Polls
In May, Bodnar held a narrow lead over Alme in a two-way race, with Bodnar at 39% and Alme at 36%, with 25% undecided
As name recognition for both has increased, the race has stayed statistically tied
June 2026
Tavern Research
In a head-to-head matchup, Bodnar matches Alme at 50% support each
In a head-to-head matchup, Bankhead falls short of Alme by 12 points (44% to 56%)
Bankhead’s 44% against Alme is consistent with voters who prefer a generic Democrat, showing she cannot over perform the Democratic baseline despite millions spent supporting her in the primary